Reagan There You Go Again Gif

March 18, 2022 Post a Comment

Honey friend

I think that three weeks into this special military performance nosotros tin take a few moments to pause and think near where we are and where we go from here.

My outset observation is this: there are, roughly, ii main groups of people out there, those who "get it" and those who don't. In practical terms, this is what this means for me: when I write I am either "preaching to the choir" or I am trying to reach folks who are "unreachable" (existence polite here).

For the past 3 weeks, I accept tried to deflate the U.s. PSYOP narrative, aslope folks like Andrei Martyanov at Reminiscences of the Hereafter and Bernhard at Moon of Alabama. My health does not allow me to sustain such a crazy tempo and I need to enter something of a "temporary rest mode" if I want to avert being forced into residuum by my body.

Yet I still go a daily drench of questions from those who did non "get it" and, frankly, I am exhausted trying to debunk the same stuff over and over and over again.

So, ane final fourth dimension:

In purely military terms, the motion picture we come across now is simple: the Ukie military as a strategic musical instrument basically died in the commencement 24 hours. And then the Russians used a small-scale force to bypass and block main cities. With some very notable exceptions (Mariupol) they did not try to enter them. Why? For iii crucial reasons:

they did not have the manpower needed (in Mariupol the force correlation is most 1:1 when information technology should really be iii-5:1 in favor of the attacker)
they wanted to impale as few Ukrainians as possible and
they did not want to flatten cities just to have to pay for their reconstruction.

So where are the rest of the Russian forces and what are they doing?

They are mostly in their permanent deployment bases and they are ready for a war confronting the US+NATO.

And if you are the blazon of believes that "the Russians are running out of manpower" ask yourself why the Blackness Sea Fleet did not use its elite Naval Infantry, amphibious landing adequacy or its firepower (I remind yous that all the huge damage washed to the NATO base in western Ukraine was just a single salvo from one single small vessel (what the Russian call a "small missile ship"), probably with one (land or air based) Iskander to add some specific "punch" where needed. If the Russian were running out of manpower, would she not employ the Black Ocean Fleet to the max? Instead, she is keeping it almost Odessa, ready to strike if/when needed, not but at the Ukraine, but at NATO too (ditto for the group of Russian ships in the eastern Mediterranean).

This is why Putin refers to this operation as a "special military performance" and non as a "war" or a "combined arms operation".

Again, you lot either "get it" or you don't. It's that simple, really.

And so here is roughly were we are today (yesterday's Readovka map):

And so we are likely to end upwards with something looking like this:

And I don't see the indicate of reporting how we will go from the top map to the projection above blow by blow, town by town.

The real question that comes to my heed looking at the project above is not "how practice we go there?" just "where practice we go from there once we arrive?". Right at present this decision fourth dimension is still probably a couple of weeks into the hereafter.

Whatever may exist the example, I have decided to stop posting updates every day (sometimes several times a day) and, instead, alternate analyses days and open thread days .

So from now on, expect analyses only every 2nd twenty-four hours (unless large events happen).

Side by side, I don't encounter any other way to stop the US+UK+PL to intervene other than by ways of a Iskander/Kalibr strike non "just" upon any target in the Ukraine, but also strikes on whatever NATO facility is central to the electric current war preparations by NATO, including locations in Poland , Romania or anywhere else in Europe.

I promise that I am wrong and that the US+Uk+PL are not equally terminally blinded by their hatred of Russia as to risk an bodily full scale war in Europe.

Only I have to admit that this promise is pocket-size and getting smaller by the day.

Information technology is therefore quite possible, possibly fifty-fifty likely, that in the not too distant futurity we will see US and Russian military personnel coming together in combat. If that happens, not only volition the risks of a fullscale nuclear war get sharply up, but it would place me personally in an impossible state of affairs: I would be a guest of the USA ("Green Card" – I only accept a Swiss Passport) while my country of ethnic origin would be at state of war with the U.s.a..

I have therefore taken the following decision: if in that location is a war in Europe, I will go along to cover information technology until ane) Russian and United states soldiers run across in boxing and/or 2) a nuclear strike happens anywhere. If nosotros reach either of these points, and so this will not only prove that the Saker blog failed in its main mission (avoid war) but it volition too place me personally in an impossible state of affairs.

If either of the two events happen, I will so "freeze" the web log until the war stops.

I don't like to take to take the two decisions to a higher place, in fact I very much regret them both, but things are quickly getting out of hand and I need to fix, both the weblog and my personal life.

Question: call back the Israeli war against Hezbollah in 2006?

Hezbollah won this war by a humongous margin, and the Usa+State of israel had to surrender to Hezbollah terms. Not just that, simply this war made Hezbollah much, much stronger than it was before. Still it began by a miscalculation which Hassan Nasrallah himself admitted: Hezbollah never expected to Israelis to go then far overboard and basically hammer Lebanese republic with everything they had for over a month.

I run into a parallel here.

No, I exercise not think that the Russian armed forces functioning has run into any major issues, by and large what happened in these three weeks must be pretty much what the Russian expected.

In economical terms, there is this large debate now most the Russian gold and foreign currency reserves which I am not capable of commenting upon since I am not an economist. I will permit much smarter people than I bargain with that.

I also call back that the Russians knew in advance what kind of sanctions the West would introduce sooner or later, just I think that the Kremlin was taken by surprise at the speed and scope of the sanctions. How much of a problem is that? Well, I mostly favor western sanctions against Russia because they strength Russian federation to built a sovereign economy and because they de-couple Russian federation from the institutions controlled by the Empire of Lies.

Hither, again, time will tell and much smarter people and so I tin can offer their insights into this.

However, I call back that virtually people in Russia are stunned past what is a total-scale "hate state of war" on Russian federation which we tin call the "Cancel Russia state of war". In essence, the W did throw everything information technology had at Russia brusque of a overt armed services assailment and knowing the geniuses in power in the US+UK+PL I would not even put it by them to effort to fight Russia directly.

So what began as a special military operation to denazify and disarm Banderastan in a preemptive war turned into a global "Cancel Russia" world state of war.

How could I arraign folks in Russia for non existence able to imagine the utter suicidal depravity of the western ruling classes when I, who was born in the eye of Europe and lived all my life in the Due west could not imagine these ruling classes to exist so absolutely out of touch on with reality?

Again, to be articulate, Russians were non "naive" to "trust" the Westward about anything, but they indeed assumed that the ruling class of the USA would not make up one's mind to blow up the planet economically and even possibly militarily because it would hurt the interests of the US ruling class. So if anybody is "dumbshit stupid" it is hardly the Russians, but rather the folks who rule over the U.s.a. (and, therefore, over the European union likewise).

There is as well this Russian expression: "you should count your chicks in the Fall". Permit'south see past year's end who was really dumbshit stupid and who will have prevailed.

Now I think that it is fourth dimension for all of us, myself included, to let go of the thought "no, they can't possibly by THAT delusional" and assume that yes, they are really THAT delusional.

I also see another parallel: recall how the USA forced Nihon into a war and then wrapped itself in the mantle of an innocent victim and declared "this solar day shall alive in infamy"?

That is exactly what the USA just pulled off in Europe. And the consequences might exist just every bit immense.

Just there is a large departure hither: Japan could non meaningfully strike at the continental Usa. Russian federation very much can, with both nuclear and conventional weapons.

Here I will only repeat the quote by Putin which I mentioned the day before the Russian special armed services operation: " if a fight is inevitable you should strike first ". In plain English language this ways that if the Russian come to the conclusion that the U.s.a. is engaged in a "Desert Shield" type of operation (claim to be only defensive while preparing for months for a fullscale ground invasion) then you tin be sure that Russia will strike EU airports, seaports or any other facility used to prepare an set on on Russia.

In fact, if the U.s./NATO do determine to assault Russian federation, this will be the final, nuclear, end for the western civilization as such. Afterwards 1000 years of genocidal imperialism, one could be forgiven for thinking that this could exist a plumbing equipment, but, finish" in the "chicken coming home to roost" kind of karmic justice.

Now information technology is in the hands of the United states of america ruling elites.

Frankly, there is very piddling Andrei, Bernhard of myself can do well-nigh that. I sure take said all I take to say on this topic and, again, some see information technology, others don't – and there is nothing more than I can do to affect this ratio.

The hereafter of our planet now depends on whether the traditional western hatred for all things Russian is bigger or smaller than the self-preservation instincts of US ruling class (the Eurolemmings are hopeless).

Merely time volition tell. All we can practise now is pray and identify our trust and lives into God'southward hands.

Okay, these are the things I wanted to communicate to yous all, my friends and readers. I withal hope for the best, but I have to prepare for the worst, and I want to be fully candid with all of y'all.

Kind regards

Andrei

The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts